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2019 NFL Season Preview and Predictions

FOOTBALL IS BACK!

The temperature outside is cooler, the leaves are starting to change color, and pumpkin spice is flowing through the air. Fall is around the corner and the best time of the year has finally arrived.

Each fan base begins the year with high expectations, even though the optimistic thoughts are typically a fairy tale for fans outside of New England, but that doesn’t stop them from tweeting out, “THIS IS OUR YEAR!”

I’m a huge hockey guy and love everything about the NHL (well mostly everything!), but there is just something about football that hypes me up for the season opener more than any other sport. Maybe it has to do with the memories of playing backyard football with my friends growing up, or watching my best buddies play under the lights on Friday night’s in high school. Hell, betting on football is a huge adrenaline rush and makes the sport that much more entertaining. But I can’t quite give a straight answer as to why football is in a class of its own, but it is and every weekend either college or NFL games will dominate the TV screen in my shoe-box sized NYC apartment.

The 2019 NFL season kicked off Thursday night in Chicago and what we learned was that preseason reps do in fact matter. It was a sloppy, defensive battle and the Packers and Bears totaled just 13 points combined. Maybe both defenses are elite or maybe they just dominated in a game where both offenses were clearly not in game mode just yet.

Whatever the case may be, football has begun, and it isn’t going away anytime soon. There are so many questions entering Week 1, but the answers might not be answered for a while. Where will Antonio Brown land after being released from the Raiders this morning? Will the Rams continue their dominance, or will they be hungover from the Super Bowl? Has Le’Veon Bell lost a step after sitting out a full season? Are the Browns contenders or pretenders? Can Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury turn things around in the dessert? Will Kirk Cousins prove his worth in Year 2? Are the Steelers better without their Killer B’s and will this be the final year of the Patriots dynasty?

The list goes on and on, but one thing remains – FOOTBALL IS BACK!

The heavy SB favorites entering Week 1 are the Chiefs, Pats, Rams and Saints, but as we all know…the Pats are typically the only team to live up to any type of expectation. I’m not going to count them out just yet, but if there was a year to do it then 2019 might be the time. No more Rob Gronkowski, no David Andrews, inexperienced wide receivers, no more Brain Flores calling defensive plays, all while Robert Kraft’s offseason allegations have overshadowed a lot of the gaps in this roster.

But then again, the Pats do have Tom Brady. Do they really need anyone else?

Kansas City has enough weapons on offense to dethrone the champs, and they have the leagues most gifted quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. Although this is technically his 3rd season, I would consider it his second because he played in just 1 game in 2017. The reigning MVP likely won’t throw for 50 TD again, but I am more interested in seeing how he follows that performance up. Will he take a step back and have a “(redshirt) sophomore slump” or will he maintain his level of excellence in 2019?

The Chiefs are for real and they could ultimately be the team that ends the Pats dynasty.

Pittsburgh’s addition by subtraction will be real after parting ways with Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. JuJu Smith-Schuster is ready to be a No. 1 option after breaking out a season ago, and LB Devin Bush could be the ultimate replacement for Ryan Shazier in the middle of the field. The Steelers tied for the league lead in sacks in 2018, but injuries and distractions hindered their playoff chances down the stretch. Ben Roethlisberger is excited for the season and so is Steeler nation. Look for Pittsburgh to bounce back in 2019 without any type of distraction hindering the franchise.

In the NFC there are far more teams capable of representing the conference down in Miami. Every division will have a battle (can’ say the same about the AFC), and I simply cannot sit here and say that “this team will for sure win the division” or “no chance this team does.”

The NFC North is arguably the best division in all of football, while the NFC South is a close second. Out East, the Cowboys and Eagles will clash for the division crown, while the Rams and Seahawks will compete for the West.

Roughly 10 teams, maybe 11, will have a shot at a playoff spot, but as we know throughout history, turnover in the playoffs from year to year is high. Minnesota, Atlanta, and Green Bay missed out last season, but they could easily all make it in 2019. Carolina was 6-2 before Cam Newton hurt his shoulder, causing the team to finish 7-9 and miss the postseason. All four of these franchises won’t likely make it to January, but I will argue that three of them will.

As a Vikings fan, I am still not sold on Cousins. He doesn’t have the big game clutch gene, but he also didn’t have a running game or a strong offensive line to work with in Year 1. This offseason the Vikes took notice and improved the O-line, while also bringing in Gary Kubiak to possibly establish a running attack and alleviate some pressure off Kirk. They still have the best WR tandem in the NFL and the defense is still elite. Their playoff hopes will live and die on the defensive side of the ball, but Cousins will have no excuses this fall. Could it finally be Minnesota’s year?

New Orleans lost a heart breaker once again in the playoffs and the league was robbed of a Brees-Brady Super Bowl. The Saints are absolutely loaded on both sides of the ball and I don’t see a better roster from top to bottom in the NFC. Brees has already entered his forties and 2019 could be his last shot at winning a second title. Look for the Saints to potentially run the table in what could be 9’s last season under center.

Philly, Chicago, Green Bay and Dallas all have the potential to make noise in the postseason, but each team has a weakness.

Green Bay has zero weapons outside of Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers, and they have a first-time head coach in Matt LaFleur. I believe that they will win the North with their revamped defense and because they have Rodgers…but their postseason run will be cut short…again.

Chicago will go as far as Mitchell Trubisky will take them. They have arguably the best defense in the entire league, but if you can’t score you can’t win. So far, the Bears could be in for an early offseason and could also be left to reconsider the QB position altogether.

I like Dallas, but I don’t like Jason Garrett. Coaching tactics could be what prevents America’s team from competing for a ring. Ezekiel Elliott got paid and is back, but Dak Prescott has not. Could the lack of money and job security be what eventually holds the Cowboys back?

Philly on the other hand is talented everywhere. The Birds no longer have the Nick Foles–Carson Wentz debate, and they have the number one rated offensive line (PFF) in the league. They were an interception away from beating the Saints and advancing to the NFC Championship last season, and they are just 2 seasons removed from winning the franchise’s first Lombardi. Doug Pederson said that he is going to be “more aggressive” in 2019, while the roster on both sides of the ball has the potential to make a deep run in January. The only weakness, however, is the health of Wentz. Given his recent track record, it’s just something that he will have to prove throughout the season for me to take the Eagles seriously.

Sleeper

The biggest sleeper in 2019 will be the New York Jets. Although they won’t likely win the AFC East, they are in a weaker conference and could easily slip into a Wild Card slot. Sam Darnold has a full season under his belt, and they added a generational talent in Bell. The offensive line still has its issues, but Darnold will have an extra pass option out of the backfield for the first time. However, outside of Bell they do not have any legitimate threats (no Robbie Anderson is not a threat). New York’s new head coach Adam Gase has stressed that he intends to pound the rock and chew up the game clock, which is a sound game plan for this roster. It would not surprise me if the Jets sneak into the playoffs in the final week of the season.

Predictions

AFC

1 Chiefs

2 Steelers

3 Patriots

4 Texans

WC1 Browns

WC2 Jets

NFC

1 Saints

2 Packers

3 Eagles

4 Seahawks

WC1 Rams

WC2 Vikings

 

Super Bowl – Saints over Chiefs

 

Notable League Awards

MVP: Ben Roethlisberger

Offensive ROY: Kyler Murray

Defensive ROY: Josh Allen

Coach of the Year: Andy Reid

Comeback Player of the Year: Jimmy Garoppolo

 

Kansas City gets its revenge over the Pats in the AFC Championship game but fall just short to Drew Brees and the Saints in the Super Bowl.

Brees claims his second Lombardi Trophy and rides off into the sunset on top of the football world!

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The Minnesota Vikings misconception of overpaying for a quarterback

USA Today

It has been a month since my last blog, but my recent move across the country to NYC along with every other little thing that comes with starting a new job has limited my time.

But…I’m back baby! Although, I don’t really know how I’m feeling. I’m a cross between pissed off, sad and confused, but it has nothing to do with the new chapter in my life. My emotions stem from the pathetic showing on Sunday Night Football by the Minnesota Vikings. But to tell you the truth I saw this coming a mile away.

After falling a game short last winter, the Vikes decided it would be in their “best interest” to go after a quarterback in free agency instead of re-signing Case Keenum and Teddy Bridgewater. Washington had its fair share of contract negotiations fall through with Kirk Cousins over the past few seasons and they finally decided to part ways and let him test the market. So, naturally Minnesota decided to throw the kitchen sink at the QB position and inked Cousins to an $84 million deal.

This brings me to my biggest argument dating back to the summer–why are we overpaying for a quarterback? Seriously though…

I get it…you need a smart signal caller that takes care of the football, but one that can also make plays and win games. The Vikings not only had a rookie quarterback in 2015 win them the NFC North (Blair Walsh costed him a playoff win as well) but he was a first-team all rookie selection as well. If not for a freak accident in training camp in 2016 the Vikes would probably still have Bridgewater under center.

Not to mention, Keenum took this current roster to the NFC title game last January. He finished 2017 2nd in completion percentage (67.6%), 2nd in QBR (72.8) and 3rd in INT (7, minimum 200 attempts), while guiding the Vikes to a first-round bye. Sure, he got lucky with a Minneapolis Miracle…but last time I checked a win is a win, and 2018 has been far from an upgrade at the  quarterback position.

Cousins has shown that he is a solid quarterback at times, but tonight on the primetime big boy stage, when the lights were the brightest…he crawled back into his shell like he has done throughout his entire NFL career.  Two untimely interceptions and a game icing pick-6 in the fourth quarter not only put Minnesota a game and a half back of Chicago for the division lead, but it also kept the Packers afloat as well.

The sad thing too is that we have one of the best defenses in the league and have for the past two years. Tonight they came to play (besides a few missed tackles, and an awful throw by Trubisky that somehow was caught in the groin area) and they even made a couple of huge plays to even keep the boys in it. But then again, this defense is the reason the Purple People Eaters have been in contention each of the past two seasons and also the reason that we didn’t need to give Kirk the keys to the city.

I get that a lot of factors come into a decision to bid for a QB and the schedule this year is a bit stronger than 2017, but my argument is more of a “why fix what isn’t broken?”

Losing Pat Shurmur to the Giants in the offseason stung, and then losing offensive line coach Tony Sparano (RIP) just before Week 1 was also a dagger, but for the majority of the staff and personnel remained the same.  What worked so well last year was that the Vikings played to Keenum’s strengths and his style of play, even though the offensive line wasn’t the greatest. The play calling got the ball out of his hands quickly to our playmakers Stephon Diggs and AdamThielen, while Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray controlled the ground game. BUT most importantly…Keenum was a solid game manager who always made the safe and/or right play. Limiting turnovers in the NFL is so crucial if you’re going to be successful and win games.

Cousins has a track record with untimely turnovers dating back to his stint in the nations capital, and has yet to win a big game since college…unless you want to count the Outback Bowl as a big time W! He threw the ‘Skins out of playoff contention in Week 17 of 2016 against the Giants at home and constantly seems to force one too many balls into coverage late in games.

Now, going back to tonight’s game, Cousins missed a wide open Diggs in the  end zone on the first drive of the game that would have been a for sure TD and would have changed the outcome of the game overall. Instead, two plays later…Cook fumbled and then the Vikes went on to get shutout until late in the 3rd Quarter.

Kirk leads the league in balls batted down at the line of scrimmage and he leads the league in fumbles lost since entering the NFL in 2012. Sure, the inconsistency of the offensive line this season has forced him to rush his throws, and the insane pass rush of Khalil Mack haunted him in the pocket all night, but Minnesota gave you $84 million dollars to compensate for these issues.

This brings me to the main part of my argument of why Keenum, or even Bridgewater for that matter, would have been a better asset to the Vikings in 2018. MONEY! Allocate the extra 20 million or whatever it would have been to the the biggest concern heading into the season…the O-line. I’m not saying Cousins is a bad quarterback, because obviously he isn’t. He can make some unbelievable throws and he can be elusive at times, but for the price tag…I’ll pass 10 times out of 10.

Let me make this clearer…I’m passing on Cousins’ price because we already had in hand two signal callers that have guided us to the postseason and one who pushed us into an NFC Championship game berth. Like the old saying goes…a bird in the hand is worth more than two birds in the bush. Although, Minnesota had two QB’s in hand and one in the bush that has an extremely average track record to go along with ZERO playoff wins.

In 2018, Kirk is 0-2 under the bright lights of SNF and he is 0-3 against teams with a winning record (CHI, NO, LAR). Oh…and the 5 wins to his name this year… Arizona, NY Jets, Philly, Detroit and San Fran…all of whom have losing records (don’t forget the massacre at home against Buffalo).

The generalization that you must overpay for a quarterback is non sense…unless you actually do not have a player who can play the position (Nathan Peterman would be an okay reason for selling the farm).

I get it, I really do. In order to win in this league you need a really good QB. But there are so many other factors that come into play. We can all agree that Aaron Rodgers is the most talented quarterback in the game today and maybe all time, but he has just 1 ring and is on the brink of missing the postseason for the second time since taking over the reins from Brett Favre in 2009. He is the highest paid QB in 2018, yet he might miss the playoffs? Hmm, maybe other positions do matter more than most people argue. But then again, what can you do about it with no money. This is why TB12 takes pay cuts.

But Evan…the Broncos did the same thing in 2012. Tim Tebow even won a playoff game too! Oh my bad, I didn’t realize that Kirk Cousins was on the same pedestal as Peyton Manning, and he has a Super Bowl and multiple MVPs. Denver had a really good defense, and Manning came in and broke virtually all of the passing records in a single season. Let me know when Kirk comes close to that please. I’ll wait.

Before I go, I want to make this clear as well. Keenum is the RIGHT quarterback for the Vikings system and FOR THE RIGHT PRICE! 

Sure, he is an average to below-average quarterback so far in the Broncos systems…but this is an argument about Minnesota and not Denver. It is two completely different organizations and rosters, and you cannot simply point to what he has done in Denver. Hell…Cousins literally didn’t win a thing in DC.

Cousins is more talented overall but Keenum’s price tag would have allowed for the Vikings to allocate money to the line, while already proving that he can win under Mike Zimmer.

I hate to do this but I am writing the Vikings off in 2018, especially after watching the Saints continue to score at will over the past 5 weeks. I seriously do not see anybody beating Who Dat Nation and it’s a scary offense to even defend.Minnesota’s offense has shown no signs of competing against the conferences best and the play calling has gotten way too predictable.

Money can get you far in life…but you must invest it correctly if you’re going to have any shot of being successful.

Here’s to hoping some of the checks bounce when the $84 million Man tries to cash them in while he continues to rob Minneapolis blind.