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2019 NFL Season Preview and Predictions

FOOTBALL IS BACK!

The temperature outside is cooler, the leaves are starting to change color, and pumpkin spice is flowing through the air. Fall is around the corner and the best time of the year has finally arrived.

Each fan base begins the year with high expectations, even though the optimistic thoughts are typically a fairy tale for fans outside of New England, but that doesn’t stop them from tweeting out, “THIS IS OUR YEAR!”

I’m a huge hockey guy and love everything about the NHL (well mostly everything!), but there is just something about football that hypes me up for the season opener more than any other sport. Maybe it has to do with the memories of playing backyard football with my friends growing up, or watching my best buddies play under the lights on Friday night’s in high school. Hell, betting on football is a huge adrenaline rush and makes the sport that much more entertaining. But I can’t quite give a straight answer as to why football is in a class of its own, but it is and every weekend either college or NFL games will dominate the TV screen in my shoe-box sized NYC apartment.

The 2019 NFL season kicked off Thursday night in Chicago and what we learned was that preseason reps do in fact matter. It was a sloppy, defensive battle and the Packers and Bears totaled just 13 points combined. Maybe both defenses are elite or maybe they just dominated in a game where both offenses were clearly not in game mode just yet.

Whatever the case may be, football has begun, and it isn’t going away anytime soon. There are so many questions entering Week 1, but the answers might not be answered for a while. Where will Antonio Brown land after being released from the Raiders this morning? Will the Rams continue their dominance, or will they be hungover from the Super Bowl? Has Le’Veon Bell lost a step after sitting out a full season? Are the Browns contenders or pretenders? Can Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury turn things around in the dessert? Will Kirk Cousins prove his worth in Year 2? Are the Steelers better without their Killer B’s and will this be the final year of the Patriots dynasty?

The list goes on and on, but one thing remains – FOOTBALL IS BACK!

The heavy SB favorites entering Week 1 are the Chiefs, Pats, Rams and Saints, but as we all know…the Pats are typically the only team to live up to any type of expectation. I’m not going to count them out just yet, but if there was a year to do it then 2019 might be the time. No more Rob Gronkowski, no David Andrews, inexperienced wide receivers, no more Brain Flores calling defensive plays, all while Robert Kraft’s offseason allegations have overshadowed a lot of the gaps in this roster.

But then again, the Pats do have Tom Brady. Do they really need anyone else?

Kansas City has enough weapons on offense to dethrone the champs, and they have the leagues most gifted quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. Although this is technically his 3rd season, I would consider it his second because he played in just 1 game in 2017. The reigning MVP likely won’t throw for 50 TD again, but I am more interested in seeing how he follows that performance up. Will he take a step back and have a “(redshirt) sophomore slump” or will he maintain his level of excellence in 2019?

The Chiefs are for real and they could ultimately be the team that ends the Pats dynasty.

Pittsburgh’s addition by subtraction will be real after parting ways with Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. JuJu Smith-Schuster is ready to be a No. 1 option after breaking out a season ago, and LB Devin Bush could be the ultimate replacement for Ryan Shazier in the middle of the field. The Steelers tied for the league lead in sacks in 2018, but injuries and distractions hindered their playoff chances down the stretch. Ben Roethlisberger is excited for the season and so is Steeler nation. Look for Pittsburgh to bounce back in 2019 without any type of distraction hindering the franchise.

In the NFC there are far more teams capable of representing the conference down in Miami. Every division will have a battle (can’ say the same about the AFC), and I simply cannot sit here and say that “this team will for sure win the division” or “no chance this team does.”

The NFC North is arguably the best division in all of football, while the NFC South is a close second. Out East, the Cowboys and Eagles will clash for the division crown, while the Rams and Seahawks will compete for the West.

Roughly 10 teams, maybe 11, will have a shot at a playoff spot, but as we know throughout history, turnover in the playoffs from year to year is high. Minnesota, Atlanta, and Green Bay missed out last season, but they could easily all make it in 2019. Carolina was 6-2 before Cam Newton hurt his shoulder, causing the team to finish 7-9 and miss the postseason. All four of these franchises won’t likely make it to January, but I will argue that three of them will.

As a Vikings fan, I am still not sold on Cousins. He doesn’t have the big game clutch gene, but he also didn’t have a running game or a strong offensive line to work with in Year 1. This offseason the Vikes took notice and improved the O-line, while also bringing in Gary Kubiak to possibly establish a running attack and alleviate some pressure off Kirk. They still have the best WR tandem in the NFL and the defense is still elite. Their playoff hopes will live and die on the defensive side of the ball, but Cousins will have no excuses this fall. Could it finally be Minnesota’s year?

New Orleans lost a heart breaker once again in the playoffs and the league was robbed of a Brees-Brady Super Bowl. The Saints are absolutely loaded on both sides of the ball and I don’t see a better roster from top to bottom in the NFC. Brees has already entered his forties and 2019 could be his last shot at winning a second title. Look for the Saints to potentially run the table in what could be 9’s last season under center.

Philly, Chicago, Green Bay and Dallas all have the potential to make noise in the postseason, but each team has a weakness.

Green Bay has zero weapons outside of Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers, and they have a first-time head coach in Matt LaFleur. I believe that they will win the North with their revamped defense and because they have Rodgers…but their postseason run will be cut short…again.

Chicago will go as far as Mitchell Trubisky will take them. They have arguably the best defense in the entire league, but if you can’t score you can’t win. So far, the Bears could be in for an early offseason and could also be left to reconsider the QB position altogether.

I like Dallas, but I don’t like Jason Garrett. Coaching tactics could be what prevents America’s team from competing for a ring. Ezekiel Elliott got paid and is back, but Dak Prescott has not. Could the lack of money and job security be what eventually holds the Cowboys back?

Philly on the other hand is talented everywhere. The Birds no longer have the Nick Foles–Carson Wentz debate, and they have the number one rated offensive line (PFF) in the league. They were an interception away from beating the Saints and advancing to the NFC Championship last season, and they are just 2 seasons removed from winning the franchise’s first Lombardi. Doug Pederson said that he is going to be “more aggressive” in 2019, while the roster on both sides of the ball has the potential to make a deep run in January. The only weakness, however, is the health of Wentz. Given his recent track record, it’s just something that he will have to prove throughout the season for me to take the Eagles seriously.

Sleeper

The biggest sleeper in 2019 will be the New York Jets. Although they won’t likely win the AFC East, they are in a weaker conference and could easily slip into a Wild Card slot. Sam Darnold has a full season under his belt, and they added a generational talent in Bell. The offensive line still has its issues, but Darnold will have an extra pass option out of the backfield for the first time. However, outside of Bell they do not have any legitimate threats (no Robbie Anderson is not a threat). New York’s new head coach Adam Gase has stressed that he intends to pound the rock and chew up the game clock, which is a sound game plan for this roster. It would not surprise me if the Jets sneak into the playoffs in the final week of the season.

Predictions

AFC

1 Chiefs

2 Steelers

3 Patriots

4 Texans

WC1 Browns

WC2 Jets

NFC

1 Saints

2 Packers

3 Eagles

4 Seahawks

WC1 Rams

WC2 Vikings

 

Super Bowl – Saints over Chiefs

 

Notable League Awards

MVP: Ben Roethlisberger

Offensive ROY: Kyler Murray

Defensive ROY: Josh Allen

Coach of the Year: Andy Reid

Comeback Player of the Year: Jimmy Garoppolo

 

Kansas City gets its revenge over the Pats in the AFC Championship game but fall just short to Drew Brees and the Saints in the Super Bowl.

Brees claims his second Lombardi Trophy and rides off into the sunset on top of the football world!

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LAbron, David Price’s Breakthrough, The 6, and Le’Veon to the Browns?

Last night LeBron James made his Lakers debut for the purple and gold on the road in Portland, but the story line was not how Los Angeles lost, rather the pieces surrounding the King.

The Lakers got off to a hot start and LeBron scored his first points on a “Pick-6” dunk in the opening minutes, but the adrenaline eventually wore off and the Blazers pulled away in the 4th to win by 9. The biggest takeaway that I had from Thursday night’s opener was not the fact that LA lost, but how good Rajon Rondo looked.

The former NBA champ totally controlled the game in the first half and found ways to get points both off the dribble and through the air, dishing out a game-high 11 assists. LeBron was his usual self but only managed to play 17 first half minutes, tallying 18 points through the first two frames (finished with 26/12/6). Walton is obviously trying to limit James’ minutes for the second half of the season, but that will ultimately change soon.

JaVale McGee looked decent as well in his debut but second-year pro Josh Hart stole the show off the bench. His 20 points kept the game interesting for the majority of the second half, but Damian Lillard and the Blazers perimeter shooting was the difference.

LA has no shooters. Literally zero. They won’t be able to challenge the West’s juggernauts–Houston and GSW–without them and quite frankly, LeBron and Brandon Ingram cannot be your go-to 3-point targets. This has been the story all summer and it will continue to be the story until they either trade for one, or Lonzo Ball and his new shooting motion catches fire.

All in all, it was a nice debut for the King, however, they came up short and LeBron is now 0-4 in career debuts in the NBA. Expect them to bounce back when the real Hollywood debut takes place this Saturday at the Staples Center against the Rockets who suffered an embarrassing loss to the Pelicans on Tuesday night.

The Lakers aren’t banking on winning the title this year. 2018-19 was all about getting LeBron, developing the youth to either trade for better weapons or simply to just buy time for the 2019 summer when they will take a run at Kawhi Leonard and Anthony Davis.

Oh, and congrats the the Warriors for their 3-peat. Klay…you can jump ship anytime now!

The New David Price?

The Red Sox are heading back to the World Series for the first time in 5 years, but the real story behind the best team in baseballs dominating series win over the Astros in the ALCS was starting pitcher David Price.

0-9. That’s what Price’s postseason record was heading into the ALCS. Not even one win. In his career in the playoffs he had a 6.03 ERA in 10 starts. He even lost to the Yankees in Game 2 of the 2018 ALDS. But somehow he managed to turn it all around and in his two starts this series against the Astros he was 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA.

Price also changed his Twitter bio information to “Astros Father.” Maybe a little over the top, especially since it was his only career playoff win and the same club absolutely shelled him a year ago, but hey, I’m all about the chirps! Keep ’em coming!

Boston has undoubtedly been the best team all year. They won 108 games (franchise record), will likely have the AL MVP (Betts or JD), and will have an outside shot at the AL CY Young (Sale). They dominated the ALCS against their rival and now executed payback for the loss Houston handed them in 2017. They have the most athletic group of outfielders that I have ever seen in my lifetime and their infielders have absolute cannons for arms. It will be Boston’s Series to lose next week against either the Dodgers or Brewers, but for the fans…please be the Dodgers. Nobody wants to see Milwaukee in the finals…but the ratings would be the highest ever for LA-BOS.

Give the fans what they want please!

Toronto

What a time to be from The 6 in 2018. Canada’s team looks like an absolute wagon in the NHL, the Raptors have a shot at winning the East with a healthy Kawhi and Drake is bound to drop another album soon…right?

Well, anyways the Leafs overs have hit in about every game this year except like two. Their offense is scoring in waves even without William Nylander and John Tavares and Auston Matthews are both going to pot 50 goals this winter.

Matthews’ insane point streak of 2 or more points in the Leafs’ first 7 games ended last night in Pittsburgh, but the kid still leads the league in goals (10) and points (16), and Toronto is in first place in the Eastern Conference.

Tavares grew up in the Greater Toronto Area and has added depth to an already vital group of forwards. Both JT and Matthews are going to put up their fair share of points this year, but for a team that has been questioned for their lack of depth defensively, Morgan Rielly has quietly been breaking records on the blue line.

The 24-year old surpassed Bobby Orr’s 45-year-old record for the most points by an NHL defenseman through the first five games of a season in the modern era. Rielly leads all NHL defenders with 13 points (T2 in NHL) and is second on the Leafs in plus-minus (+5). Toronto leads the league in goals for (33) and ranks 4th in goal differential (+7).

Who said you have to defend if you average over 4 goals per game? It’s simple math…just outscore your opponent and you’ll be just fine!

Leonard looked solid in his Raptors debut, dropping 24 points and grabbing 12 boards en route to a 116-104 win over the Cavs. A healthy Claw means that Toronto significantly got better when they traded DeRozan to the Spurs for Leonard back in July.

Boston is the only team that could take the Warriors the distance next June, but they will have to get past a gritty Raptors team first. I’m not sold on the 76ers quite yet. They, like LA, don’t have any ‘good’ shooters and their best players only attack at the rim. Toronto can actually control a game from the perimeter, but the question is whether or not they can compete in Boston.

It’s still early, but both the Raptors and Leafs are locks to make playoff runs. How far they go…well, that will come down to a variety of factors, health being the biggest. Let’s just sit back and watch history in the making while Tavares and Matthews both go for 50 a piece, and the Claw takes Canada to an NBA Finals…and then leaves for LA right after.

Bell to the Browns

Le’Veon Bell publicly announced (through his agent) that he would be returning to the Steelers sometime during the teams Week 7 Bye. The exact date is unknown, and whether or not he will report is still a question.

The Killer B has tweeted that he wants to remain a Steeler and win in Pittsburgh, but the offensive line and current starter, James Conner, seem to be doing just fine. The Steelers are back in the win column and are just one game back in the AFC North.

Bell is demanding a long, guaranteed contract like Todd Gurley signed this past off-season, but Pittsburgh refuses to give him one due to his given history of being suspended. So, where does this leave us now? Obviously trying to spitball and guess where Bell ends up by Week 10.

Today’s Jacksonville-Cleveland trade might have just answered everybody’s questions. The Browns dished RB Carlos Hyde to the Jaguars in exchange for a 5th round pick, clearing up cap space to sign a big name…possibly Bell.

Why would the unemployed star back want to sign there? They have a rookie 1st overall QB (Baker Mayfield), they have the leagues number one receiving target (Landry) and they lead the league in takeaways. This roster is very underrated and they are missing a game changer in the backfield. Cleveland could and should trade for Bell now if they wish to have a superstar running back for the future.

The Browns already have “their guy” under center, now just give him a transcendent talent to alleviate pressure and build off of a really good defense. Also, Conner is tearing it up in Pittsburgh and is being paid at league minimum essentially. Why risk bringing Bell back and disrupt what is working as of late…

Mark it down…Bell should be and will be a Cleveland Brown.

 

 

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Mahomes, the Benefit of Being Patient, OT Controversy, MLB Playoffs and the Meltdown in Paris

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He can’t sustain this high level of play. He can’t win in a tough road environment. He can’t win a mile up in the air. Teams will figure him out soon. The list goes on and on…but one thing remains the same–Patrick Mahomes keeps lighting it up.

Monday Night Football was the real coming out party for the Kansas City quarterback. The Chiefs were trailing by 10 points in the fourth quarter against a very good Denver defense who hadn’t lost at home when leading by double digits in over a decade. That’s when the crowd was silenced. Mahomes led the Chiefs down the field twice for touchdowns, including the play of the game on a critical third and five when he switched hands and threw for a short first down while evading Von Miller on the outside.

The Chiefs held strong on Denver’s final drive and they now sit in first place in the AFC. Through four games in 2018, Mahomes has 15 total touchdowns, 1,200 yards passing, a 65.2 completion percentage and ZERO interceptions. These are insane video game numbers that we are witnessing in real life. But we can’t give all the credit to the Tyler, TX native can we?

There is something to be said about gaining experience and getting thrown into the fire right away. You can learn from your mistakes quicker and you can take a lot of reps early on in your career. But the one downside that you cannot control is social media. No matter how well or how poorly you play Twitter will be right there waiting to destroy you every which way. The critics will be waiting for you to fail and if you are thrown into the ring on a historically poor franchise it can hinder your career from the beginning.

Just look at what it has done to some quarterbacks in the past. Matt Leinart in 2006 was gone in Arizona after failing to live up to his college Heisman potential, Brady Quinn for the Browns in 2007 and Tim Couch in 2001, JaMarcus Russell in 2007 for the Raiders and the ever so famous Ryan Leaf in 1998 for San Diego. All big time college prospects thrown onto the field too early because of how well they played when they were college kids.

I’m not saying it happens to everybody, but there are growing pains along the way and it takes a toll on certain players. Carson Wentz had a very solid first year for the Eagles in 2016 and turned around in 2017 and, if not for an injury, would have been the league MVP. There are some rare cases like this, but like I said…RARE.

The biggest benefit a young quarterback can have is to wait, especially if there is a talented veteran in front of him. But they don’t have to be all that talented. They just need to be able to show the rookie the ropes and the everyday process of playing under center. Just look at the most successful quarterbacks in the past decade-plus.

Tom Brady, drafted in the seventh round out of Michigan. Sat behind Drew Bledsoe for a full season before taking over the reins and winning the Super Bowl the following year…we all know the rest.  Aaron Rodgers sat behind Brett Favre in Green Bay for three season before taking over and also winning a Super Bowl, while becoming a generational talent in the league. Big Ben sat a few games before coming in, the list goes on. But we are also seeing this type of production in today’s game with Jared Goff in Los Angeles and Patrick Mahomes in KC.

It doesn’t have to be a full year, but it also doesn’t hurt to wait that long. Mahomes played in one game in his rookie season and sat behind Alex Smith while stating that it had done wonders for his career. Goff was in a Jeff Fisher running, old-school system before Sean McVay took over and altered his career. I’m not saying that everything is going to be perfect if you sit and wait. You obviously need a great offensive minded head coach or coordinator, and weapons surrounding the quarterback.

A lot of these “busts” became busts because of the system they were drafted into and how hot the coaches seat was when they arrived. It’s nice to get drafted in the top-5, but the benefit of slipping in the first round is far greater than people think. Just ask the Packers and Rodgers, or the Patriots and Brady.

Maybe being drafted first-overall as a quarterback isn’t the best long-term plan for your future. Only time will tell, but historically speaking if you look at how many quarterbacks went on to have successful, long-term careers the scales tip in favor of the players who got to learn behind veteran starters.

The NFL is changing and quarterbacks are getting significantly more prepared for the NFL, while the rules are only helping the position further. I hope that the 2018 quarterback class can be successful long-term as all four of the signal callers taken inside the top-10 are starting and it’s only Week 4. But at the end of the day it is a business and we will just have to wait and see.

Week 4 Recap

The Bills are still the Bills after getting blanked on the road at Lambeau Sunday afternoon just one week removed from upsetting the Vikings in Minneapolis. Josh Allen took a step backwards after looking like a veteran QB against Minnesota, but it was Rodgers who was upset after the Week 4 win.

Aaron called out the play calling and game flow, he was mad that they had to settle for field goals in the red zone, and he was just upset about the lack of targets that were designed for Devontae Adams, his main receiver. Anyways, the Packers are back in the win column, but have a lot of work to do? Who knows, Rodgers can be a diva at times.

Everybody knew the Bears defense was legit, but their offense? Well, it was non-existent through three weeks. However, that all changed Sunday in the Windy City. Somebody was under center wearing a Mitch Trubisky jersey and he broke the record for most passing touchdowns in a Bears uniform in franchise history (6). They absolutely routed the Buccaneers and likely ended the run of Ryan FitzMagic altogether. Oh, and they are in first place in the North.

The 45-10 route gave insight as to just how good the Bears might be, but also to how bad the Buccaneers defense is and maybe how bad the Pittsburgh Steelers actually are.

The Bucs lost 30-27 a week ago to Pittsburgh, but had two turnovers inside their own 25 yard line, one for a pick-six, and the Steelers scored zero second half points…what is going on it the Steel City?

Le’Veon Bell is rumored to report during the Steelers’ Week 7 Bye, but will he dress up for the black and yellow or will he be traded? That remains to be seen, but Pittsburgh’s offense is in shambles and clearly they need the third member of the Killer B’s. If I was the Steelers I would just sign him to a long-term deal now. I don’t think James Conner is the answer, although he is very good, but Bell is just an elite talent that opposing defenses must respect and he can sway game planning in Pitt’s favor.

I personally think he gets traded, especially after what happened to Doug Baldwin in Seattle. Trade him while you can and get something in return or risk losing him for nothing. The locker room appears as if it is already divided and if the offensive line is calling him out, then why would they block for somebody they have given up on?

New England has been and always will be a tease to the league in September. Once again, many had written them off (including myself, except I said they would still make playoffs) and they did what they have done the previous four seasons. Route an above .500 opponent one week after their record fell to 1-2 and all is good again. Oh yeah…Julian Edleman, Brady’s main receiver, returns from suspension this week. Good luck, AFC.

The Oakland Raiders handed Jon Gruden his first win in over a decade after one of the most exciting games of the week in the Bay Area. Another Browns OT thriller resulted in a loss, but not after controversy. Fumble, forward progress, whatever it may be…the Raiders took advantage and their kicker got second life to win the game.

The Browns loss secured an 0-4 showing from all four top-10 2018 QB picks in Week 4. Allen, Darnold, Mayfield and Rosen all came up empty handed, but the direction of the league looks to be in good hands.

Now, you didn’t actually think I was going to end this NFL recap without mentioning the Frank Reich OT fourth down call did you?

C’mon. That was the highlight of the week! The Colts had an epic comeback fall short in overtime after deciding to go for it inside their own territory with under :30 seconds remaining. Now, they did not convert and Houston converted a pass to get into FG range, and eventually won, but I agree with the call. Never play for a tie. Ever. Trust your players, and let them trust you.

First year head coach, trying to make a statement with his MVP caliber QB who just threw two touchdowns to tie the game before the end of regulation. That was absolutely the right call. That’s the media, though. You convert…you’re a hero, if not, you wake up Monday morning and you’re the headline on national news. I love it. Great call, Reich.

MLB Playoffs Preview

The Hunt for October has officially ended, which means one thing…playoff baseball is back!

After the NL West and the NL Central had a dead tie after 162 games both divisions did a one-game playoff for the title. What made this game even more interesting was the strategy that was involved. Losers meet-up in the Wild Card play-in-game this evening, while the winners rest and host the Wild Card round at home.

Madness!

Milwaukee won at Wrigley and the Dodgers won at home, so Colorado travels east to Chicago for the first Wild Card match-up tonight.

The Atlanta Braves and Dodgers will now meet in round one while the winner of the play-in-game will travel to Wisconsin to take on Christian Yelich and the red-hot Brewers.

The Yankees host the Athletics in the AL Wild Card game tomorrow night and the Red Sox await the winner at Fenway. If the MLB faithful do not get the epic Sox-Yanks playoff series it has been waiting 14 years for then it will be a bloody shame. You all know where I stand on this bull s*** play-in-game format, but it could come back and bite the league in the rear.

The defending World Series champion Houston Astros host the Cleveland Indians in the other American League match-up.

Personally, I love October baseball. But it is even more entertaining when the Sox and Yankees and both in it. Both have 100-plus wins and their rosters are just as good, if not better than the 2004 meeting.

Aaron Judge is back and healthy along with Gary Sanchez for the record-setting home run hitting Yankees and they have one of the best power hitting rosters in the league with the addition of Giancarlo Stanton. Potential Rookie of the Year candidates Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres are also a threat to Oakland and the AL, which is why I am picking the Bronx Bombers to come out of the AL.

The Red Sox bullpen and starting rotation is so deep, and so is Houston’s, but their is no easy out in the Yankees lineup. Mookie Betts is going to win the MVP in the AL but he is known for his postseason struggles. If it were a seven game series I would possibly think about taking the Red Sox, but in a best-of-five I’ll take New York.

In the West I really like the Milwaukee Brewers, but the inexperience deters me from taking them. Yelich has been the best player in all of baseball since July, but playoff baseball is another breed (just ask Clayton Kershaw).

I know they played last night, and I know they have to win a play-in-game to advance, but I think the Chicago Cubs come out of the NL. They have a deep starting rotation and have unbelievable defense. Like the Dodgers, they have experience of making the World Series, but I believe they have the better manager overall in Joe Maddon.

Atlanta and Milwaukee’s inexperience will show and it will be another epic NLCS between the Cubbies and Dodgers.

Prediction- Yankees over the Cubs in 6 games.

Ryder Cup

What a disastrous showing for Team USA from top to bottom. I’m not even going to get into the mess that transpired. Europe knows how to play team golf and America doesn’t. The struggle on European soil continues for another four years, but at least Patrick Reed kept quiet after he had a losing record in Paris…what a joke.

Is it April yet?