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Stanley Cup Playoffs: Preview and Prediction

The 2019 NHL Playoffs are finally here in what could be considered the greatest sports week of the year.

March Madness concluded in an epic finish Monday night in Minneapolis that crowned Virginia National Champions in an overtime thriller over Texas Tech. Tuesday marked the beginning of the quarterfinals in the Champions League overseas, while the NBA wraps up their regular season Wednesday night with many playoff spots still up for grabs in the East. Obviously the NHL playoffs take flight tomorrow evening with five games on the slate, and the greatest golf tournament of the season is back Thursday morning down in Augusta, Georgia.

Show me a better week in professional sports and I will show you a liar!

Whether Tiger pulls through on Sunday at The Masters or not, we all have the Stanley Cup Playoffs to look forward to for the next two months and the first-round match-ups couldn’t be more exciting.

Calgary vs Colorado 

Calgary’s offseason acquisitions of Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm helped propel this team to the top seed in the West, while Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan had their best seasons as pros in 2019. The Flames are deep offensively and had the second best goals-per-game average 5-on-5 (3.52) in the league. They have the talent to make a deep run, but their goaltending is the biggest question mark in the Pacific region. Calgary has yet to name a starter ahead of Game 1, which could play mind games for both Mike Smith and David Rittich by not knowing who will own the cage.

Colorado claimed a wild-card spot a season ago, but this time they are back to prove they belong. They have a top-5 player in the league in Nathan MacKinnon and have a top-line that can compete with any team. I give the slight edge to Colorado in the goaltending department just because Philipp Grubauer has been named the starter, while Colorado has a more efficient power play which is critical in the postseason.

The Flames own the slight edge over the Av’s in penalty kill percentage and goals-against average per game, but I just think they even strength play will be too much for Colorado in this one.

Flames in 5 

San Jose vs Vegas

The Sharks limped to the finish line, losing eight of nine games to end the month of March and crawled to the second seed. They will likely have Erik Karlsson back at some point in round one which is a positive, but I just don’t know if Martin Jones can steal a few games like he did in 2016. They have the leagues sixth best PP (23.6%), but rank 15th on the PK (80.8%). The one area that hurts them, much like Calgary, is in net. The Sharks gave up the 11th most goals in 2019, which is why many will not be taking them to make a deep run.

Vegas started the year slow, picked up steam around the All-Star Break, and then cooled off in the final four weeks of the season. They were nowhere near their miraculous 2018 run that fell short of the Cup, but they are back in the playoffs and have virtually the same roster. Marc-Andre Fleury tends to turn it on in April, but if their PP doesn’t show up then this could be a quick series down south.

The Knights and the Sharks have identical experiences in the playoffs, but I just feel that Vegas has the better overall roster from top to bottom. The Golden Knights magic lives on for another round in 2019.

Golden Knights in 7

Nashville vs Dallas 

Nashville struggled after the All-Star Break but found a way to steal the top seed in the Central away from the Jets. Trade deadline acquisitions of Wayne Simmonds and Mikael Granlund add depth, skill and grit to an already physical roster while the 2018 Vezina Trophy netminder will look to bounce back from his brutal second round series a season ago. The Preds have the worst PP in the league (12.9%), but make up for their lack of scoring on the PK, as they rank inside the top-6 (82.1%). A healthy back-end will cause problems for Dallas and could be the difference if this series goes deep.

The Stars had one hell of a second half in 2019, especially after their own president called out stars Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn in November for a poor start. Dallas has the leagues 11th best PP to go along with the fifth best PK, and Ben Bishop leads the NHL in save-percentage at .934% and ranks second in GAA (1.98). The one downfall to this team is that even though they prevent goals from going in their own net, they do not generate any offense outside of their top line.

This entire series smells like an upset and has all of the intangibles to provide the fans with one, but I just think that home-ice advantage is critical in the playoffs and Nashville will sneak out a hard nosed series in the end.

Predators in 6 

Winnipeg vs St. Louis

This is hands down my favorite matchup of the first round. Many love the Leafs-Bruins series, but this pairing will absolutely be one for the ages.

Winnipeg was a heavy preseason favorite by many, including myself, and own one of the top PP’s in the league that is running at 24.8%. If the Blues take a lot of penalties against the Jets they will pay the price. The addition of Kevin Hayes at the deadline gave Winnipeg a legitimate second line, while Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler took a major step forward after lighting up the 2018 playoffs. Connor Hellebuyck will need to elevate his play from an average regular season if the Jets will look to make another run, but the x-factor in this series will be Dustin Byfuglien and whether or not he can shut down the Blues top-line while also chipping in offensively.

Is there any hotter team entering the playoffs than the Blues? Seriously though. Is there? Maybe Tampa Bay or Boston, but the turnaround that this franchise had after sitting in last place in the NHL in mid-December is remarkable. They were 1 point shy of taking the top seed in the Central in large part to Petey’s Sports Zone’s Athlete of the Month, Jordan Binnington.

Binnington stole the net from Jake Allen and in the process positioned this roster into the playoffs. As a starter he has a 24-5-1 record and he ranks 4th in SV% (.927) and 1st in GAA (1.89). Pure insanity.

If Winnipeg is going to have any chance of hoisting the Cup then they better match the physicality of the Blues. I somewhat see this like the Hamburglar story in Ottawa a few years back, which is why the Jets will out duel the Blues and take this series at home.

Jets in 7 

Now, let’s shift gears on over to the East.

Tampa Bay vs Columbus

The Bolts tied the 1996 Red Wings with the most wins in NHL history with 62, which is why I really don’t see them losing more than five games this postseason. I mean where do I even begin? Tampa’s Nikita Kucherov tallied 128 points, the most in a season since 196-97, while Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point both sit inside the top-12 in point scoring.

The Lightning have arguably the deepest blue line in the East, and have the soon-to-be 2019 Vezina Trophy winner as their last line of defense. Andrei Vasilevskiy leads the NHL in wins (39), ranks sixth in SV% (.925) and ninth in GAA (2.40). Not to mention, Tampa leads the league in scoring (3.89 G/GM), PP% (28.2%), and is tied for first in penalty kill percentage (85.0%).

The Jackets likely didn’t choose to keep the farm at the trade deadline with the hopes of meeting up with Tampa in round 1, but they could cause some problems against the NHL’s best.

Columbus is tied with Tampa for the best PK in the league, but they rank 28th in PP% (15.4%). They have depth both offensively and defensively, but not nearly as much as their opposition. Sergei Bobrovsky will have to turn a new leaf and erase his past playoff failures in this series before he departs for greener pastures this summer if Columbus is going to stand any chance. If they limit the amount of penalties they take, which won’t be easy trying to slow down Kuch and Stammer, then they could be competitive, but I just do not see it.

Tampa is out to prove everyone wrong this season and will wipe the floor with the Jackets in a clean sweep.

Tampa in 4

Boston vs Toronto

Much like St. Louis, the Bruins caught fire after the All-Star break and locked up the second seed with roughly a few weeks left in the season. Brad Marchand elevated his play in 2019 by notching his first ever 100 point campaign, while the addition of David Pastrnak coming off a hand injury is pivotal for a playoff push and for their power play.

The Brew Crew have the third best PP in the league (25.9%), but are vulnerable on the defensive side. The Bruins need to find a way to match the speed of the Leafs in this series as it has plagued them all year long against skilled, quick rosters.

Goalie decisions seem to be the story of the first round and the Bruins will be one of those teams trying to figure out who will get the nod. Tuuka Rask and Jaroslav Halak split time, but both have had their playoff failures throughout the years. If Boston comes out of this series alive it will be in large part due to their offense.

Toronto has been the most inconsistent team in the past three months and enter the playoffs with a three-game losing streak. Much like the Bruins, they have unbelievable talent up front but cannot defend to save their lives. They have one one of the best coaches in the league with Mike Babcock, but if they don’t win a playoff run this year it will be a complete failure.

Toronto will have to rely heavily on their “Big 3” (Tavares, Marner, Matthews) throughout this series and, once again, home ice will likely be the deciding factor at the end of the day. The Bruins are too hot and will out muscle Toronto for most of this series.

Bruins in 6

Washington vs Carolina

The Capitals earned the top seed in the Metropolitan for the second consecutive season and will attempt to keep the Stanley Cup in the nations capital.

Alex Ovechkin earned his eighth Rocket Richard title, tallying 51 goals on the year and the Birds are peaking at the right time. The Caps had a down year on the PP, running at just 20.8%, but have been one of the most efficient teams 5-on-5, tallying the fifth most goals-per-game (3.34). Braden Holtby had a similar regular season as he did in 2018, but has proven that he thrives in the postseason. If the Saskatchewan native plays like he did a year ago, then Tampa might not have the type of walk that everyone is expecting them to have.

Carolina ended a 10-year playoff drought by claiming the first wild-card slot in the East, but it wasn’t before they became known as “a bunch of jerks” for their absurd post game celebrations. Justin Williams announced that they will no longer be doing the mini dances and fun games after wins at home in the playoffs, which is completely fine by me!

Carolina is one of the league’s most puck possessive teams and lead the league in shots per game (34.4). They own the eighth best PK in the NHL (81.6%), but have not been able to score with the man advantage on the PP. Much like Calgary, the ‘Canes new offseason additions have helped leap frog this team back into the playoffs, while the signing of Petr Mrazek has been instrumental to their goaltending situation down the stretch.

The Hurricanes have been a great feel-good story in 2019, but the Capitals will put an end to their short parade as they seek another championship banner.

Capitals in 5

New York Islanders vs Pittsburgh

No John Tavares, no problem. New York’s 2018 summer makeover went from what looked like a rebuild to a second seed in the postseason. Management brought in the 2018 Stanley Cup coach Barry Trotz, along with hockey genius Lou Lamoriello to be the GM and they have had tremendous success without their former franchise captain.

The Isles have the league’s best statistical tandem in net with Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss, and the Island leads the league in goals-against per game (2.33). They are well balanced offensively, but they pride their play on the defensive side of the puck. The one thing that will hurt this team from beating the Penguins is their lack of scoring both 5-on-5 and with the man advantage. They rank towards the basement in scoring and rely too heavily on the defensive aspect of the game.

Pittsburgh on the other hand prides their game on offense. They have the fifth best PP in the NHL (24.6%) and rank sixth in goals per game (3.30). The Pens also have elite goal-scoring forwards that compliment one of the world’s best players in Sidney Crosby, who reached the 100 point plateau in the final game of the season.

Pittsburgh’s defense is what could kill them in 2019 as well as the inconsistent play of Matt Murray. At times he has played unbelievable, but other times he has not. The Pens need a huge series out of the two-time Cup winner if they want to avoid being eliminated in April.

The x-factor in this series for both teams will be goaltending. Who will step up and steal a few games and who will let the moment be too big? I’ll take the experience in net and the fire power up front over the defensive juggernaut in this one.

Penguins in 6

Every single one of these series has the potential to go seven, but experience and depth is what will eventually prevail. Special teams play and goaltending is what wins championships, which is why team’s that are new to the playoff picture will not be playing in late May.

My preseason prediction and trade deadline prediction was Boston over Winnipeg, but I am taking a quick audible in the Eastern Conference. The Tampa Bay Lighting check every single box in my postseason check list and are on a whole different level.  The Bolts will get over the hump and win their first title since 2004.

Stanley Cup: Lighting over Jets in 6

Conn Smythe: Steven Stamkos

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How the Kevin Hayes trade impacts the NHL playoff picture

The New York Rangers decided that it was more  beneficial for their “rebuild” plan to move on from Kevin Hayes as opposed to re-signing him to a long-term contract. Whether you think it was a smart move by management to part ways with one of the best second-line centers in the league or not, it has now impacted the overall outlook of the 2018-19 season.

In his first four seasons with New York he averaged 43.5 points, 18 goals and logged a 7.5 +/- rating. This season he is on pace for nearly 60 points (career high) and has been one of the best players for the Rangers throughout this new learning curve. Sure, they were nowhere a playoff spot, but what he brought to this young roster was a veteran presence and consistency night in and night out.

I still cannot believe Jeff Gorton opted to not pony-up and sign Hayes to a long-term deal, and quite frankly, it was not a “smart” move as many analysts think. They traded him to the Jets for a first-round pick in 2019 and a conditional fourth-rounder in 2020 (which they will get if the Jets win the Stanley Cup), plus 22-year-old winger Brendan Lemieux. So the reality of it is that by looking at this current team from top to bottom, management believes that an extra first-rounder (LATE ROUND PICK…) and a prospect that hasn’t fit in well on an offensively loaded team will be better suited than a player who has proven his worth for nearly five years. One is a guaranteed NHLer, while the other option weighs in the balance of an unknown pick in the draft. Interesting…let’s see how this one plays out, cotton.

The former Boston College alum has been playing at a dominant level in 2019 and brings tremendous depth to a stacked Jets franchise. Not only does does he make Winnipeg legitimate Cup contenders, but his style of play fits in nicely with the current core already in place. He is a solid penalty killer and can chip in with the man-advantage, while also playing a full 200-foot game. With Josh Morrissey sidelined with an upper-body injury, Hayes will have to step in and be a factor right out of the gate.

The Hayes trade not only impacts the Central Division, but it has ripple effects across the rest of the Western Conference as well. Las Vegas and Nashville both felt pressure to get significant deals done at the deadline buzzer after seeing Winnipeg pull the trigger earlier in the day.

The Golden Knights won the Mark Stone sweepstakes and inked him to an 8-year deal worth $9.5 million annually. Vegas was a heavy favorite in the preseason to get back to the Finals, and after an up and down month of February they are positioned right back in the thick of things. The Predators made a play for Philadelphia’s Wayne Simmonds and added another big, physical forward to their roster, while also trading for Minnesota Wild forward Mikael Granlund.

If the season ended today, the Central Division would have five representatives (the most a division can have) and the top two seeds are separated by a single point, with the third place team just 5 points back. Oh, and that third team is the St. Louis Blues who have won 12 out of their last 14 games and are catching fire at the right time. Talk about a playoff race HEATING up!

San Jose added Detroit’s Gustav Nyquist to make an impact on the third line, while Calgary stayed quiet and decided to keep their roster intact just as the Presidents Trophy run-away Tampa Bay Lighting did out East. Was it smart? Well, that remains to be seen, but as the old saying goes–“if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”

Now, if I had a gun to my head and was forced to pick a team this minute to represent the East, I’m taking the Bolts. They have the league’s leading scorer and rank first overall in power play percentage (29.7%) and penalty kill percentage (85.7%), and they have the soon-to-be Vezina Trophy winner shutting the door in Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Their track record in the postseason isn’t great, but their experiences losing the past four years will finally pave the way for them to get over the hump in 2019. I mean, how else can you look at it…they have lost in Game 7 of the Conference Final to the eventual Stanley Cup winners in both 2016 and 2018. This has to be the year, right?

As far as the West goes, I actually don’t know. At the beginning of the year I picked Winnipeg to be the representative, but they have looked shaky at times. Patrik Laine has had one of the strangest seasons out of any superstar, but looks like he might have regained his scoring touch heading into the final stretch of the year. With Dustin Byfuglien in the lineup they have a steady back-end and rank fourth in the league in PP% (25.3%).

Calgary doesn’t have the overall experience in my opinion to get it done, and their goaltending could be the difference between a deep run or a one-and-done finish in April. San Jose is the type of team that on paper they should be a lock, but have yet to really take that extra step, while Vegas has taken a step in the wrong direction in February after a dominating month of January to open the 2019 calendar year.

I already mentioned St. Louis’ hot hand, but I truly believe that the Western representative will come out of the Central Division, and will ultimately come down to another hard-nosed, Game 7 series between the Jets and Predators. Both team’s have loaded up and added depth to positions in need, and the final 20 games of the year will dictate who gets home ice advantage in the second round.

The Hayes trade not only impacted the Jets, but it likely gives them the upper hand come playoff time. The Rangers loan is the Jets’ biggest deadline acquisition in franchise history and the Boston native will look to guide the city of Winnipeg to their first Stanley Cup title in franchise history.

 

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Who Should the Blue Jackets and Rangers Sell at the Trade Deadline?

The 2019 NHL trade deadline is just one week away and several franchises across the league are faced with the difficult decision of either buying or selling their star players.

Team’s that think they have a legitimate shot at winning the Cup, but believe they are a player short, will take out a loan for an athlete that they believe will put them over the hump. Last year Tampa made a huge splash acquiring Ryan McDonagh to solidify their back end, while Boston took a chance on the recently retired forward Rick Nash. It can be added depth to the third or fourth line, a goalie, or even a legitimate All-Star…it all depends on what management feels they need in order to put themselves in a position to compete.

This year, however, the Columbus Blue Jackets and New York Rangers quite possibly have the hardest decisions to make ahead of Sunday. The Jackets have two elite players on the final length of their contracts who will become unrestricted free agents this summer. The blueshirts have a flurry of players who could become available if the opportunity presents itself, but the question is whether or not Jeff Gorton be willing to pull the trigger.

Columbus has to decide if they want to shop their Vezina Tropy award-winning goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky along with All-Star forward Artemi Panarin. As of now, the Jackets are sitting in third place in the Metropolitan Division and are two points clear of the final wild card slot in the East. With just seven days until the deadline, would it make sense for Columbus to throw in the towel and gear up for the future?

Well, it is extremely difficult to say, but I would say no. The likelihood of both Bob and Panarin signing in July are very slim, but this current roster has the potential to make a deep playoff run. They have skilled forwards up front and have four skaters with 20 or more goals. Defensively, they have a Norris-caliber talent in Seth Jones, along with two younger stable pieces in Zach Werenski and Ryan Murray.

The top line of Panarin-Pierre-Luc Dubois–Cam Atkinson has combined for 173 points in just 55 games, and they have depth with captain Nick Foligno Anthony Duclair, and up-and-coming star Josh Anderson to round out the top-six.

Getting rid of Panarin now would at least get you something in return, but would come at the cost of making the playoffs. You simply cannot remove your most skilled asset offensively and make the playoffs in 2019, but if we learned anything from last years off season it is that your franchise can still be viable without a superstar. The Islanders held on to franchise star John Tavares and lost him in July for nothing, but have been the biggest surprise this winter and sit a top of the Met standings. So what are the Jackets waiting for then…an elite offer?

My argument to this comes down to one thing–win now mode. The Jackets are in a win now mode and have the pieces to compete. If they get rid of their play making, top-line wing, then the city of Columbus will go 19 seasons without a playoff series win. 10 months ago, this same roster had the Washington Capitals on the ropes in overtime…at home…in Game 3, and were a goal away from basically ending the Caps’ dreams of winning the title. Sure, you are going to lose him for nothing in July, but who is to say the prospect or draft pick you trade him for will be anywhere near the type of talent that Panarin is? Hang on to him and try and make some noise in the playoffs this time around.

As far as Bob goes, this one is even trickier. Looking at the current playoff teams and the team’s on the outside looking in, it is tough to say what organization would take out a loan for a playoff run. The majority of the teams in the playoffs have either one legitimate goalie or two that have been decent enough to win games, although, Vancouver is a worthy destination for the 30-year-old Russian.

The Canucks are just two points out of a wild card spot in the West, but have an inexperienced goalie owning the crease as of now. Jacob Markstrom has a record of 22-17-6 (solid, but not great), to go along with a 2.77 GAA and a .911 SV%. Vancouver has one of the most talented young cores in all of hockey right now, but a string of injuries have restricted them from maintaining a playoff spot over the past several weeks.

The question is whether or not the Canucks would be willing to give up a first round pick or top prospect in return, and if the Jackets believe that they can survive and keep pace in the Met with backup Joonis Korpisalo taking over the reins.

If history has taught us anything it is that Bob has had his fair share of struggles in the postseason. In just 24 playoff appearances he has a .891 save percentage, 3.49 goals against average, zero shutouts and a record of 5-14. The Russian’s kryptonite throughout his career has been the playoffs and if the Jackets can get some type of return on him they should.

Both superstars contracts are expiring at seasons end and Columbus would risk losing them for nothing come July. If they choose to bypass the deadline and keep both Bob and Panarin, then it is boom or bust for the 19-year-old franchise.

Another interesting team to follow this week is the Rangers. New York is supposed to be in a “rebuilding” stage, but have been doing anything but that in 2018-19. They are 10 points back of a wild card slot and most certainly will not be making the playoffs, but isn’t the whole purpose of a rebuild to sort of tank for the future?

Tanking is generally highlighted by losing games (in regulation) and playing for a lottery pick in the summer. I’m not saying physically go out their and play like garbage, but put a number of young prospects in the lineup and move on from veteran players who have a valuable return. But for the Rangers…Henrik Lundqvist stands in the way of issuing a full on rebuild.

Lundqvist’s numbers might not be eye popping, but if you watch New York on a nightly basis it is easy to tell that he is one of the biggest reasons that the Big Apple cannot tank. Night in and night out the Swedish net minder has been stealing points for his club and it has now put them in an awkward position ahead of the Feb. 25 deadline. His no trade clause has hindered their chances of developing other goalies at the NHL level and prevents them from moving on from their Hall of Fame talent altogether.

During this “rebuild”, Kevin Hayes has emerged as a valuable piece to the Rangers’ puzzle. Although he is currently on a 1-year contract, the Boston native has had his best season as a pro and is nearly averaging a point-per-game (40 in 48 GP). The Rangers could get a lot in a trade for Hayes and have the upper hand based on his current line of work. Winnipeg, Colorado, Vegas and Boston could all be solid trade options, but they risk not being able to re-sign him in the off season once his contract is up.

Team’s who are desperate for the Cup and who feel their window is closing will almost certainly pull off a deal, but should the Rangers even do it? If Hayes is fitting in so well with this roster that consists of some key young players, then they might as well sign him to a long-term deal. I would argue that the blueshirts should try and move Mats Zuccarello before Hayes.

Zuc has been a cornerstone for the franchise and has been a reliable player over his career, but with the direction the franchise is heading in, along with the current core of prospects, they should part ways with the fan favorite. I’m not saying that New York is a player or a few picks away by any means, but if the goal is to somehow end up in the lottery for Jack Hughes, then it is time to “tank” and move on from their most skilled forward.

Mika Zibanejad has demonstrated that he can be a franchise forward and is on an absolute tear in the 2019 calendar year. He has 21 points in his last 14 games and leads the Rangers in points with 57. New York should build around the former Senators 2011 first-round pick and attempt to get a favorable return on Zuccarello.

If a high offer comes in for Hayes or if his asking price is too high, then by all means make the deal, but don’t get pressured by the media to move on from either player if you believe they can help the city compete for a championship in the next few years.

Both the Jackets and Rangers have a lot of thinking to do in the next week that will alter the direction of the franchise for years to come. So, grab your Starbucks and pay attention because a tidal wave is about to hit the league and you do not want to miss this!