The 2019 NHL Playoffs are finally here in what could be considered the greatest sports week of the year.
March Madness concluded in an epic finish Monday night in Minneapolis that crowned Virginia National Champions in an overtime thriller over Texas Tech. Tuesday marked the beginning of the quarterfinals in the Champions League overseas, while the NBA wraps up their regular season Wednesday night with many playoff spots still up for grabs in the East. Obviously the NHL playoffs take flight tomorrow evening with five games on the slate, and the greatest golf tournament of the season is back Thursday morning down in Augusta, Georgia.
Show me a better week in professional sports and I will show you a liar!
Whether Tiger pulls through on Sunday at The Masters or not, we all have the Stanley Cup Playoffs to look forward to for the next two months and the first-round match-ups couldn’t be more exciting.
Calgary vs Colorado
Calgary’s offseason acquisitions of Noah Hanifin and Elias Lindholm helped propel this team to the top seed in the West, while Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan had their best seasons as pros in 2019. The Flames are deep offensively and had the second best goals-per-game average 5-on-5 (3.52) in the league. They have the talent to make a deep run, but their goaltending is the biggest question mark in the Pacific region. Calgary has yet to name a starter ahead of Game 1, which could play mind games for both Mike Smith and David Rittich by not knowing who will own the cage.
Colorado claimed a wild-card spot a season ago, but this time they are back to prove they belong. They have a top-5 player in the league in Nathan MacKinnon and have a top-line that can compete with any team. I give the slight edge to Colorado in the goaltending department just because Philipp Grubauer has been named the starter, while Colorado has a more efficient power play which is critical in the postseason.
The Flames own the slight edge over the Av’s in penalty kill percentage and goals-against average per game, but I just think they even strength play will be too much for Colorado in this one.
Flames in 5
San Jose vs Vegas
The Sharks limped to the finish line, losing eight of nine games to end the month of March and crawled to the second seed. They will likely have Erik Karlsson back at some point in round one which is a positive, but I just don’t know if Martin Jones can steal a few games like he did in 2016. They have the leagues sixth best PP (23.6%), but rank 15th on the PK (80.8%). The one area that hurts them, much like Calgary, is in net. The Sharks gave up the 11th most goals in 2019, which is why many will not be taking them to make a deep run.
Vegas started the year slow, picked up steam around the All-Star Break, and then cooled off in the final four weeks of the season. They were nowhere near their miraculous 2018 run that fell short of the Cup, but they are back in the playoffs and have virtually the same roster. Marc-Andre Fleury tends to turn it on in April, but if their PP doesn’t show up then this could be a quick series down south.
The Knights and the Sharks have identical experiences in the playoffs, but I just feel that Vegas has the better overall roster from top to bottom. The Golden Knights magic lives on for another round in 2019.
Golden Knights in 7
Nashville vs Dallas
Nashville struggled after the All-Star Break but found a way to steal the top seed in the Central away from the Jets. Trade deadline acquisitions of Wayne Simmonds and Mikael Granlund add depth, skill and grit to an already physical roster while the 2018 Vezina Trophy netminder will look to bounce back from his brutal second round series a season ago. The Preds have the worst PP in the league (12.9%), but make up for their lack of scoring on the PK, as they rank inside the top-6 (82.1%). A healthy back-end will cause problems for Dallas and could be the difference if this series goes deep.
The Stars had one hell of a second half in 2019, especially after their own president called out stars Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn in November for a poor start. Dallas has the leagues 11th best PP to go along with the fifth best PK, and Ben Bishop leads the NHL in save-percentage at .934% and ranks second in GAA (1.98). The one downfall to this team is that even though they prevent goals from going in their own net, they do not generate any offense outside of their top line.
This entire series smells like an upset and has all of the intangibles to provide the fans with one, but I just think that home-ice advantage is critical in the playoffs and Nashville will sneak out a hard nosed series in the end.
Predators in 6
Winnipeg vs St. Louis
This is hands down my favorite matchup of the first round. Many love the Leafs-Bruins series, but this pairing will absolutely be one for the ages.
Winnipeg was a heavy preseason favorite by many, including myself, and own one of the top PP’s in the league that is running at 24.8%. If the Blues take a lot of penalties against the Jets they will pay the price. The addition of Kevin Hayes at the deadline gave Winnipeg a legitimate second line, while Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler took a major step forward after lighting up the 2018 playoffs. Connor Hellebuyck will need to elevate his play from an average regular season if the Jets will look to make another run, but the x-factor in this series will be Dustin Byfuglien and whether or not he can shut down the Blues top-line while also chipping in offensively.
Is there any hotter team entering the playoffs than the Blues? Seriously though. Is there? Maybe Tampa Bay or Boston, but the turnaround that this franchise had after sitting in last place in the NHL in mid-December is remarkable. They were 1 point shy of taking the top seed in the Central in large part to Petey’s Sports Zone’s Athlete of the Month, Jordan Binnington.
Binnington stole the net from Jake Allen and in the process positioned this roster into the playoffs. As a starter he has a 24-5-1 record and he ranks 4th in SV% (.927) and 1st in GAA (1.89). Pure insanity.
If Winnipeg is going to have any chance of hoisting the Cup then they better match the physicality of the Blues. I somewhat see this like the Hamburglar story in Ottawa a few years back, which is why the Jets will out duel the Blues and take this series at home.
Jets in 7
Now, let’s shift gears on over to the East.
Tampa Bay vs Columbus
The Bolts tied the 1996 Red Wings with the most wins in NHL history with 62, which is why I really don’t see them losing more than five games this postseason. I mean where do I even begin? Tampa’s Nikita Kucherov tallied 128 points, the most in a season since 196-97, while Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point both sit inside the top-12 in point scoring.
The Lightning have arguably the deepest blue line in the East, and have the soon-to-be 2019 Vezina Trophy winner as their last line of defense. Andrei Vasilevskiy leads the NHL in wins (39), ranks sixth in SV% (.925) and ninth in GAA (2.40). Not to mention, Tampa leads the league in scoring (3.89 G/GM), PP% (28.2%), and is tied for first in penalty kill percentage (85.0%).
The Jackets likely didn’t choose to keep the farm at the trade deadline with the hopes of meeting up with Tampa in round 1, but they could cause some problems against the NHL’s best.
Columbus is tied with Tampa for the best PK in the league, but they rank 28th in PP% (15.4%). They have depth both offensively and defensively, but not nearly as much as their opposition. Sergei Bobrovsky will have to turn a new leaf and erase his past playoff failures in this series before he departs for greener pastures this summer if Columbus is going to stand any chance. If they limit the amount of penalties they take, which won’t be easy trying to slow down Kuch and Stammer, then they could be competitive, but I just do not see it.
Tampa is out to prove everyone wrong this season and will wipe the floor with the Jackets in a clean sweep.
Tampa in 4
Boston vs Toronto
Much like St. Louis, the Bruins caught fire after the All-Star break and locked up the second seed with roughly a few weeks left in the season. Brad Marchand elevated his play in 2019 by notching his first ever 100 point campaign, while the addition of David Pastrnak coming off a hand injury is pivotal for a playoff push and for their power play.
The Brew Crew have the third best PP in the league (25.9%), but are vulnerable on the defensive side. The Bruins need to find a way to match the speed of the Leafs in this series as it has plagued them all year long against skilled, quick rosters.
Goalie decisions seem to be the story of the first round and the Bruins will be one of those teams trying to figure out who will get the nod. Tuuka Rask and Jaroslav Halak split time, but both have had their playoff failures throughout the years. If Boston comes out of this series alive it will be in large part due to their offense.
Toronto has been the most inconsistent team in the past three months and enter the playoffs with a three-game losing streak. Much like the Bruins, they have unbelievable talent up front but cannot defend to save their lives. They have one one of the best coaches in the league with Mike Babcock, but if they don’t win a playoff run this year it will be a complete failure.
Toronto will have to rely heavily on their “Big 3” (Tavares, Marner, Matthews) throughout this series and, once again, home ice will likely be the deciding factor at the end of the day. The Bruins are too hot and will out muscle Toronto for most of this series.
Bruins in 6
Washington vs Carolina
The Capitals earned the top seed in the Metropolitan for the second consecutive season and will attempt to keep the Stanley Cup in the nations capital.
Alex Ovechkin earned his eighth Rocket Richard title, tallying 51 goals on the year and the Birds are peaking at the right time. The Caps had a down year on the PP, running at just 20.8%, but have been one of the most efficient teams 5-on-5, tallying the fifth most goals-per-game (3.34). Braden Holtby had a similar regular season as he did in 2018, but has proven that he thrives in the postseason. If the Saskatchewan native plays like he did a year ago, then Tampa might not have the type of walk that everyone is expecting them to have.
Carolina ended a 10-year playoff drought by claiming the first wild-card slot in the East, but it wasn’t before they became known as “a bunch of jerks” for their absurd post game celebrations. Justin Williams announced that they will no longer be doing the mini dances and fun games after wins at home in the playoffs, which is completely fine by me!
Carolina is one of the league’s most puck possessive teams and lead the league in shots per game (34.4). They own the eighth best PK in the NHL (81.6%), but have not been able to score with the man advantage on the PP. Much like Calgary, the ‘Canes new offseason additions have helped leap frog this team back into the playoffs, while the signing of Petr Mrazek has been instrumental to their goaltending situation down the stretch.
The Hurricanes have been a great feel-good story in 2019, but the Capitals will put an end to their short parade as they seek another championship banner.
Capitals in 5
New York Islanders vs Pittsburgh
No John Tavares, no problem. New York’s 2018 summer makeover went from what looked like a rebuild to a second seed in the postseason. Management brought in the 2018 Stanley Cup coach Barry Trotz, along with hockey genius Lou Lamoriello to be the GM and they have had tremendous success without their former franchise captain.
The Isles have the league’s best statistical tandem in net with Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss, and the Island leads the league in goals-against per game (2.33). They are well balanced offensively, but they pride their play on the defensive side of the puck. The one thing that will hurt this team from beating the Penguins is their lack of scoring both 5-on-5 and with the man advantage. They rank towards the basement in scoring and rely too heavily on the defensive aspect of the game.
Pittsburgh on the other hand prides their game on offense. They have the fifth best PP in the NHL (24.6%) and rank sixth in goals per game (3.30). The Pens also have elite goal-scoring forwards that compliment one of the world’s best players in Sidney Crosby, who reached the 100 point plateau in the final game of the season.
Pittsburgh’s defense is what could kill them in 2019 as well as the inconsistent play of Matt Murray. At times he has played unbelievable, but other times he has not. The Pens need a huge series out of the two-time Cup winner if they want to avoid being eliminated in April.
The x-factor in this series for both teams will be goaltending. Who will step up and steal a few games and who will let the moment be too big? I’ll take the experience in net and the fire power up front over the defensive juggernaut in this one.
Penguins in 6
Every single one of these series has the potential to go seven, but experience and depth is what will eventually prevail. Special teams play and goaltending is what wins championships, which is why team’s that are new to the playoff picture will not be playing in late May.
My preseason prediction and trade deadline prediction was Boston over Winnipeg, but I am taking a quick audible in the Eastern Conference. The Tampa Bay Lighting check every single box in my postseason check list and are on a whole different level. The Bolts will get over the hump and win their first title since 2004.
Stanley Cup: Lighting over Jets in 6
Conn Smythe: Steven Stamkos